Health and economic impacts of introducing specific excise tax to waterpipe tobacco in Egypt: a simulation model of simple and mixed tax policy approaches.

INTRODUCTION: Waterpipe tobacco is taxed at half the rate of cigarettes in Egypt and, unlike cigarettes, does not have a specific excise component. We aimed to simulate the introduction of a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco consumption, premature deaths and government waterpipe tobacco revenue in Egypt. METHODS: We took model inputs from the latest available data on consumption, market shares and market share prices, price elasticities of demand, tax structure and from discussions with government officials. We modelled increases to specific excise to produce a 45%, 55%, 65% and 75% tax burden and compared a simple (specific only) structure with a mixed (specific and ad valorem) structure. RESULTS: Under the simple approach, introducing a US$2.1 specific tax would result in a 75% tax burden with 67% fewer waterpipe tobacco units smoked, 1 004 604 averted premature deaths and a 236% increase in government revenue relative to the current tax structure. At the 75% tax burden, the simple approach resulted in 1.5% fewer waterpipe tobacco units consumed, 9000 more averted premature deaths and 12.7% more government revenue compared with the mixed approach. Results for other tax burdens are presented and remained robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco in Egypt can yield considerable government revenue and public health gains. We recommend the simple approach, in line with the WHO recommendations, which produces greater economic and public health gains than the mixed approach and is easier to administer for the Egyptian government.

A predictive model of waterpipe smoking cessation among women in southern Iran: application of the theory of planned behavior.

BACKGROUND: Today, waterpipe (WT) smoking is a rising issue worldwide, and has taken a significant and growing share of tobacco consumption in the world. Present study aimed to explore the predictors of WT cessation in the light of the theory of planned behavior (TPB). METHODS: This cross-sectional analytical study was conducted in 2021-2022 using a multi-stratified cluster sampling on 1,764 women in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran. Data were collected through a reliable and valid questionnaire. The three-part questionnaire includes demographic information, behavioral information of WT smoking, and the constructs of the TPB along with an additional habit construct. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was run to model the predictor constructs of WT smoking. The data were analyzed statistically in STATA14.2. RESULTS: With an increase in one attitude score, the odds of cessation increased by 31% (p < 0.001). Also, with an increase of one score in knowledge, the odds of cessation are increased by 0.05% (0.008). With an increase of one score for intention, the odds of cessation are 26% (0.000). in social norms, the odds of cessation are 0.02% (0.001). With an increase of one score in perceived control, the odds of cessation increased by 16% (0.000) and inhabit score, the odds of cessation decrease by 37% (0.000). In the model where the habit construct was present, the accuracy, sensitivity, and pseudo R2 indices were 95.69%, 77.31%, and 65%, respectively and after removing the habit construct, the so-called indices changed to 90.7%, 50.38% and 0.44%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The present research confirmed the effectiveness of the TPB model in predicting waterpipe cessation behavior. The knowledge obtained from this research can help develop a systematic and effective intervention to facilitate waterpipe cessation. Focusing on the habit variable can play a critical role in waterpipe cessation in women.

Gender differences in the price elasticity of demand for waterpipe and cigarette smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine: a volumetric choice experiment.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the extent to which the elasticity of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco products differs between men and women. We also explored the levels of substitution and complementarity in tobacco products among men and women. SETTING: The study examines tobacco elasticities in three Arab countries: Lebanon, Jordan and the West Bank of Palestine. PARTICIPANTS: We used data from nationally representative surveys of adults aged ≥18 years in Lebanon (n=1680), Jordan (n=1925) and Palestine (n=1679). The proportion of women was 50.0% of the sample in Lebanon and Palestine, and 44.6% in Jordan. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: A zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities for two variations of cigarettes and five variations of waterpipe tobacco products. Elasticities were measured based on eight scenarios of prices. RESULTS: Demand for waterpipe tobacco products was elastic for both men and women. The cross-price elasticities in the three countries indicate the existence of substitution between cigarettes and waterpipe products and by different varieties within each of the two tobacco products. Gender differences varied across the three countries whereby higher cross-price elasticities were observed for women in Jordan and Palestine. For example, the price elasticity for discount waterpipe was -1.4 and -0.6 for women and men in Jordan, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Results on the elasticity of demand for tobacco products and the existence of substitution between tobacco products reveal the higher responsiveness of men and women to changes in tobacco prices. This should be taken into consideration in tobacco control strategies particularly when reducing tobacco consumption via taxation policies.

Identifying healthcare cost drivers in Palestine.

We examine the relationship between national health expenditure and its drivers to help inform resource allocation policy decisions in Palestine. We forecast health expenditures from the financing agency perspective, and examine Granger-Causality relationships to assess implied causality between health spending and exogenous variables, using estimates of vector autoregressions. We forecast national health expenditure to be US$1.45 billion in 2015 and grow at 7% annually through 2020. This is due to expected increases in government health expenditure, and household spending, at 5% and 7%, respectively, compared to 2014. The proportion of household spending on health services is expected to increase, while the government proportion is expected to decrease over the long run due to budget constraints. Population growth, ageing and changes in chronic disease patterns contribute significantly as drivers of the increase in healthcare costs. Our results suggest a need to review and modify the current health insurance scheme.

Induction Of Labor Among Singleton Pregnancies In Six Palestinian Governmental Hospitals: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore rates and review practices regarding induction of labor (IOL) among singleton pregnancies in Palestine. DESIGN: A prospective population-based cohort study. SETTING: Six secondary and tertiary governmental hospitals located in the two regions of Palestine: West Bank and Gaza. PARTICIPANTS: Singleton pregnancies who had IOL in participating units during the study period were included (n=8290). Women having multiple gestations (1004), planned cesarean births (703), those admitted with cervical dilation >6cm (11228), and pregnancies with no record of cervical dilation and/or gestational age on admission (219) were excluded. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Rates of IOL in participating units and regions. RESULTS: There were a total of 33,402 singleton births during the study period with an IOL rate of 24.8%. Rates of IOL significantly varied between units, ranging from 12.9% to 45.6% (P-value <0.05). The majority of women with no previous uterine scar were induced at gestational ages ≤40 weeks where 43.8% were induced at 39-40 gestational weeks (29.9% multiparous; 13.9% nulliparous) and 17.7% were induced between 37 and 38 gestational weeks (11.9% multiparous; 5.8% nulliparous). CONCLUSION: Significant variations in IOL practices between Palestinian hospitals and regions suggest overuse of IOL among singleton pregnancies in some units with the majority of these being performed before 40 weeks' gestation. These findings indicate a gap between implementation of best evidence and current clinical practice.

The range and nature of reproductive health research in the occupied Palestinian territory: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: In order to set research priorities for reproductive health in the occupied Palestinian territory, it is vital to know what current research has been done in the field of reproductive health. The purpose of this scoping review is to examine the range and nature of reproductive health research in the occupied Palestinian territory and to identify research gaps in the existing literature. METHODS: We searched four databases: EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, and Popline. We included studies that: (i) are published (with an abstract); (ii) relevant to reproductive health; (iii) Palestinians living in Palestine; (iv) participants over the age of 15 years; and (v) restricted to human research. Three independent reviewers screened title and abstracts, and extracted data from included articles. We conducted quantitative and qualitative analyses. RESULTS: Of 1025 titles and abstracts screened, 145 articles were included. 52 (36%) articles were conducted in community setting and 34 (24%) were conducted in hospitals. There were 5 (3%) experimental studies. 15 articles had more than one main theme; 160 subthemes overall were identified. The most frequently studied theme was labor and delivery (n = 19; 12%). One article discussed adolescent reproductive health and menopause while no articles discussed men's reproductive health. CONCLUSIONS: 91% of the research conducted is observational. The focus of reproductive health research was to understand the topic, community and providers' perceptions and knowledge. Articles related to the quality of services were limited. It is also important to research the reproductive health of women outside of reproductive age, men, and adolescents.

The quality of reports of medical and public health research from Palestinian institutions: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: Over the past decade, there has been an increase in reports of health research from Palestine, but no assessment of their quality. We have assessed the quality of reports of Palestinian health research and factors associated with it. DESIGN: This is a systematic review. INCLUSION CRITERIA: We searched Medline and Scopus for reports of original research relevant to human health or healthcare authored by researchers affiliated with Palestinian institutions and published between January 2000 and August 2015 inclusive. OUTCOMES: We used international guidelines to assess report quality, classifying as adequate those with ≥50% of items completely addressed. RESULTS: Of 2383 reports identified, 497 met our inclusion criteria. Just over half (264; 55%) of these were published after 2010. 354 (71%) of first authors were affiliated with Palestinian institutions; 261 (53%) reports had coauthors from outside Palestine. The majority of the reports in our study were inadequately reported (342; 69%), and none had adequately reported all items. Of 439 observational studies, 11 (2.5%) reports provided adequate descriptions of eligibility criteria and selection procedures; 35 (8%) reported efforts to address potential sources of bias; 50 (11.4%) reported the basis for the study sample size; and funding sources were mentioned in 74 reports (17%). Higher reporting quality was associated with international affiliation of the first author (prevalence ratio (PR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.2 to 2.1)), international collaboration (PR 2.9 (95% CI 1.7 to 5.0)), international funding (PR 1.9 (95% CI1.5 to 2.5)), publication after 2005 (PR 3.9 (95% CI 1.8 to 8.5)) and four or more coauthors (PR 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 2.1)). CONCLUSION: Although the quality of reports of Palestinian research has improved in recent years, it remains well below an acceptable standard. International reporting guidelines should be used to guide research design and improve the quality of reports of research. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The systematic review protocol was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registery (registration number: CRD42015027553).

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

HIV/AIDS-related knowledge and attitudes of Palestinian women in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

OBJECTIVE: To explore Palestinian women's knowledge, perceptions, and attitudes towards HIV/ AIDS. METHODS: Data used in this study were collected as a part of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2004 in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT). RESULTS: Most of the women in the OPT (93.4%) had heard of AIDS. They had fair general knowledge of HIV/AIDS prevention methods and transmission. TV was the main source of information about HIV/AIDS. Among the determinants of HIV/AIDS knowledge identified by this study were education, region, and locality. CONCLUSION: A research-informed policy concerning HIV/AIDS prevention should be formulated.